Category: Nationals

“I will not be discussing anything relative to 2019 at all…If you guys do ask anything about that, I’ll be walking right out the door.’’ In a Scott Boras written quote delivered with a classic Bryce flavor, the sweepstakes for arguably the most prized free agent of all time began. A former MVP and five–time all-star rarely hits the open market at a ripe age like 26. Actually, it’s never happened. It’s easy to make an argument for Bryce commanding a record $400-$500mil contract but that would require ignoring what occurred this past offseason.

Opening day last Thursday marked the end of one of the most curious offseason’s of baseball. An offseason that saw many of the top tier free agents remaining unsigned well into spring training. Ultimately the free agents that did sign eventually settled for less dollars and shorter contracts (many accepted one-year deals for less money than the qualifying offers they rejected just a few months earlier). This has led to a private panic in clubhouses around the league, especially among impending free agents. The question becomes should the biggest free agent of 2019 also be worried about what occurred this past offseason?

To fully answer that question, we have to explore the driving factors behind this slow offseason. Scott Boras wants you to believe that too many teams are tanking and are therefore choosing not to be competitive by passing on signing free agents. That explanation, however, fails to address a number of important factors. Despite Boras’s claim, when you look closely at this offseason, teams in the “tank” category such as the Padres or Phillies actually did spend big dollars on free agents while the usual big spenders like the Dodgers stayed pat. Two of the best explanations revolve around the luxury tax handicapping the richest teams as well as the rising value of young prospects around baseball. The former predictably results in less spending even by the wealthiest teams but the later requires more explanation. When a team signs a free agent, that team gives up both draft picks as well as international signing bonus money. That might not sound like a lot or even mean much to the average fan, but executives have estimated the exact cost of that to be an additional $50mil on top of the money guaranteed in the contract. All in all, luxury tax implications and sacrificing cheap young talent have stalled the free agent market in a big way.

Shifting back to Bryce, many wonder if the upcoming free agent king is immune to these larger forces redefining how MLB teams spend money. These recent changes in baseball play right into the hands of the Nationals front office. One important exemption to the rule of giving up picks and prospects to sign free agents is for the current teams of those free agents. That means that even without Bryce giving the Nats a home team discount, a discount of about $50mil is already built into the new contract. The other advantage that the Nationals have lies in their ability to exclusively discuss a new contract with Scott Boras all season long. Boras would never agree to a contract extension for Bryce before the season ends, but this at least allows the Nats to lay down a possible framework for a deal that can be finalized in the offseason. It also doesn’t hurt that Bryce’s agent and the owners of the Nats– the Lerner Family are very familiar with each other in terms of free agent negotiations. All things considered, the Nats have a lot going for them in their chances to re–sign Bryce and this past offseason only made it easier.

The Washington Nationals will win the NL East. It likely will not be close. The only semblance of competition may come once again from the New York Mets. It seems comical to say “once again” when the Mets barely competed last year. So, what is different this year? Well for starters (pun intended), they are going into the season healthy. They also made a change at the top, bringing in first time Manager, Mickey Callaway who coached the Cleveland Indians pitching staff to great success over the past couple of years. The Mets are hoping that Callaway can bring this experience to coach their potentially formidable and finally healthy starting rotation.

The Mets are only three seasons removed from a World Series appearance, where they got a glimpse of how good they can be for many years to come. This staff beat a much more stocked Dodgers team and mowed down the Cubs lineup, sweeping them in the NLCS, before losing to the Royals. The Mets followed up that season by making the playoffs again in 2016, the first time in their history they made the playoffs in back to back seasons.

This offseason, in addition to getting healthy, the Mets were smart and thrifty. They signed OF Jay Bruce, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, LHP Jason Vargaz, 3B Todd Frazier and reliever Anthony Swarzak to team friendly contracts. You may not like the sound of a thrifty big market team ( I hate it) but you can’t deny that in this market the Mets came out looking good.

For the Mets this season, it will come down to their starters and their health. Just for fun, and maybe some tears, here is a reminder of all the Mets who went down with an injury last year; Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Zach Wheeler (who didn’t even pitch at all last season), David Wright, (check the numbers, he was on pace for a Hall of Fame career) Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Jeurys Familia and others. Not to mention, they unloaded Jay Bruce (who has since resigned), Addison Reed and Neil Walker. All teams have injuries but the Mets were decimated and this year, everyone, sans Wright, is healthy. The Mets need 60 starts from the top two in the rotation (Syndergaard and Degrom) and they need Harvey and Matz to return closer to their top form. The Mets also have rotation depth for once with Jason Vargas, Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman and Wheeler likely to pitch in that fifth rotation spot. This depth will keep their arms healthy. This is a top 5 in baseball rotation if healthy, if not, the Mets will be terrible.

Another, team strength to go unnoticed is the Mets bullpen. Familia, the team’s single season saves leader (51) returns to do the bulk of the closing. Callaway has already confirmed that he will use the game scenarios and matchups to determine how he is going to use the backend of his bullpen, as he did in Cleveland. With so many strong backend arms, this can prove to benefit the Mets as this may help keep Familia out of those multiple out or multiple run saves he often blew. Gsellmen, or Lugo, or Wheeler or Vargaz will play pivotal roles as the long man out of the pen or spot reliever giving the rotation a breather and longevity.

Can you guess which teams in the National League hit the most home runs? Not the Cubs or the Nats. Answer, the Mets and Brewers. However, other than hit home runs the Mets did very little else right offensively. Again, injuries and trades killed this lineup, but don’t be mistaken, this team will hit again. This lineup is more balanced this year and the bench is solid. They have upgraded at just about every position. This lineup likely has four 30+ home run hitters (Bruce, Cespedes, Frazier, Conforto). What the Mets lose in speed, they make up for in power. There won’t be much small ball with this team, but you can expect they will produce a lot of runs this year.

The Mets will not win the National League East. However, the Mets will compete. This team can win 90 games or 70 games if it all falls apart again. My prediction, it won’t. The Mets will take one of the wild card spots. In the playoffs, this is not a team you want to face. With 2 aces a lineup that can hit and a long bullpen that is six men strong, other NL playoff teams will want to avoid the Mets. Then again, these are the Mets, and you never know how they will disappoint you again this year. (Careful Nats fans, you should refrain from laughter as your team has shown some great creativity in losing playoff series.)

It’s Opening Day, Let’s Play Ball!

Put a “Curly W” in the books for the DC Curse… and another “L” for the Nationals.

This may be the most gut wrenching of them all. For a team that’s suffered 3 straight NLDS game 5 losses before tonight, including one in which they led 6-0, that’s telling. Of course, in true tragic and familiar fashion the Nationals took an early lead as the offense finally woke from its slumber to put up a 4 spot in the second. The hero of that second inning was Michael Taylor, who in consecutive at-bats going back to game 4 was responsible for 7 RBIs. While Gio Gonzalez labored through 3 unimpressive innings, the thinking was that this time, our deep bullpen would carry us through. Well….think again.

The relief efforts started innocently enough as Matt Albers came on and pitched a scoreless top of the fourth. Then, it was Max time. Scherzer had pitched brilliantly in game 3, throwing 6 hitless innings before giving up his first hit in the seventh and being pulled. He retired the first two hitters in game 5, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, who happen to be the Cubs best hitters. From there, disaster struck. Three hits, an intentional walk, a passed ball, a dropped third strike, catcher’s interference and a hit by pitch — all with two outs and suddenly the 4-3 lead had turned into a 7-4 deficit in a hurry. A lead washed away, an electric crowd silenced in disbelief.

Somebody must have it out for Dusty Baker. The 68-year-old manager of the Nats has seen enough heartbreak on the baseball field to last two lifetimes. Now (seemingly) 0-10000 in elimination games, everything he does in these types of games always seems to backfire. Even his good moves go against everything we’ve come to count on and expect. Start Jayson Werth in the 2^nd spot again? He gets on base 4 times and has the best at-bats on the team. Everything else? That’s the story of the misery of Dusty Baker in the postseason. Starting with Max’s incredibly unlikely outing, everything fell apart for Dusty and the Nats. Brandon Kintzler and Sammy Solis combined to give up 2 more runs when they needed shutdown innings in the worst way. So, even after the Nats score 3 runs in the 6^th and 7^th, they still trailed 9-7 heading into the bottom of the 8^th.

The bottom of the 8^th might go down as the opening scene in the Dusty 30 for 30. The inning started beautifully as Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rendon drew leadoff walks to bring up the pitcher spot (switched into the 7^th hole) and everyone’s favorite blonde, Adam Lind. Sticking to the tragedy script, Lind of course grounded into a double play on the first pitch. What followed the double play is beyond words. After Taylor singled in Murphy (8 RBIs in 2 games, never buying a beer in DC ever again) Jose Lobaton singled up the middle. Lobaton, the backup to starting catcher Matt Wieters had been inserted as part of a double switch an inning earlier. This after Dusty had the chance to pinch-hit for Wieters with Lind or Howie Kendrick with the bases loaded, but instead watched as Wieters flew out to end the inning.

Back to the bottom of the 8^th inning; Taylor on second, Lobaton as the go-ahead run and Trea Turner up to bat against a laboring Wade Davis. As Turner worked the count in his favor 2-1, Lobaton drifted too far off first trying to get a secondary lead and Wilson Contreras almost picked him off. As the bang-bang play was replayed, Lobaton appeared to slightly lose his footing on the bag and Joe Maddon promptly challenged, and of course won, because he’s not Dusty Baker. Just like that, the inning was over and Davis was spared. 3 outs later in the bottom of the 9^th, the Cubs advanced and the Nationals were bitterly sent home for the winter once again.

It’s too soon to ask, where do we go from here? A loss like this is going to be very hard to move past for a long time. It’s understandable if you want to blame Dusty or the bullpen or the lineup, but the blame game has been played before and we’ve still lost in Division Series 4 consecutive times. While you can’t say Dusty was the sole reason the Nats lost the series, his moves over the course of the 5 games will be justifiably questioned throughout the offseason. With his contract up, it will be interesting to see what the Lerners and Mike Rizzo decide to do. For now, we’re left with the same depressed feeling as D.C. sports fans, another year where we’re left saying the familiar phrase, “well there’s always next year”. What a disappointing way to end such a promising season. The Curse lives on!

On a night when the Nationals acknowledged and celebrated the most dominant Air Force in all the World, the US Air Force, the Nats and Dodgers took the field in the third game of a three game series to claim their place as the most dominant team in the National League.  The Dodgers got much needed quality pitching performances from Alex Wood and Rich Hill, two starters slated to be a big part of the Dodgers playoff rotation plans. The Nationals on the other hand countered with Edwin Jackson and A.J. Cole, two pitchers who may not even make the playoff roster, depending on how things shake out.  

You could say that this series doesn’t mean much considering the Nats wrapped up the NL East what seems like months ago, even though it’s only been a week. Since clinching, the Nats have lost 4 out of 5 games, you might call it a bit of a hangover. The Dodgers came into DC a bit of a wounded dog.  Yes, they were on a 2 game winning streak, but that was after losing 11 in a row and 16 of their last 17. To say the Dodgers were struggling would be quite the understatement. The Dodgers began this losing streak with a record of 91 -37, that’s 54 games over .500! Even after all that losing, they still held a 92 -52 record and a 10 game division lead over the 2nd place Arizona Diamondbacks.  Coming into this series the Nats were 5 games behind the Dodgers for the best record in the NL. A sweep, brings it down to 2 games, with 14 left to play…anything can happen.   Losing the first 2 games pushes the Nats to 7 back. A loss Sunday, and the Nats fall 8 back and all of sudden the once dormant Dodgers (if you can call a 95 win team dormant) are now on 5 game winning streak and feeling good about themselves.

Tonight, Stephen Strasburg, one of the heads of that Nationals dominant two headed pitching monster along with Max Scherzer, took the mound to face the Dodgers. Strasburg came in hot, having pitched 34 straight scoreless innings.  Observers will tell you he hasn’t been perfect during this streak but he has been getting himself out of trouble, if ever he found himself in it.  The Dodgers countered with Hyun-Jin Ryu, a  lefty pitcher with a nasty curve and an average fastball. Ryu is a good pitcher but isn’t likely to be part of the Dodgers rotation.  Also sitting for the Dodgers were Adrian Gonzalez and Again, tonight was a matchup between two teams that may look a bit different if they meet again in October.

Strasburg, for his part, had some slight control issues in the early innings, giving up 2 walks and hitting a batter in the first 3 innings. Hiis scoreless streak ended at 35 innings after conceding a double to Logan Forsythe that scored Yasiel Puig. That said  he still managed to strike out 7 batters through 5 innings and kept the Dodgers at bay. The Nats offense however seems to have collectively slumped. Ryu, initially seemed to continue the string of strong Dodger pitching performances in this series but got chased by after throwing 98 pitches in 4⅔ innings, not having allowed a run but walking Strasburg and lead off hitter Trea Turner.

In the most controversial moment of the evening, the next batter Jayson Werth lined an 0-2 pitch from reliever Ross Stripling down the left field line. The 3rd base ump immediately called the ball foul. Strasburg stopped half way between 3rd and home, with Turner on his heels. Nationals manager, Dusty Baker immediately called for a challenge and review by the league offices in NY. The crowd was certain the call would be overturned, only to be disappointed by the upholding of the call on the field.  Boos rained down on the umps and Werth flew out to centerfield to end the inning.

In the bottom of the sixth, the heart of the Nationals lineup made some noise. Following an Anthony Rendon walk, Daniel Murphy lined a sharp single to center for Ryan Zimmerman.  Zimmerman crushed a 3-1 90 mph slider over the right center field wall for a 3 run homer. Strasburg  was done after six very strong innings giving up 3 hits, 1 run, 3 walks 1 hbp and 8 strikeouts on 94 pitches.

It was then on to Baker’s trusty bullpen beginning with Brandon Kintzler who breezed through the top of the 7th on 10 pitches. Ryan Madson pitched the eighth, getting off to a shaky start giving up a hard single to right by Corey Seager. Seager advanced to second on an error in the field by Werth. Madson would then retire Justin Turner, Cody Berlinger and Yasiel Puig in order to end the threat.  Sean Doolittle came into the game in a non save situation and closed out the game getting the final three outs around a harmless single and walk.

The Nats added another run in the seventh on a Rendon double down the left field line that scored Werth who legged it home all the way from first. The Nats used the long ball to pad the score in the bottom of the eight with, Zimmerman hitting his 2nd homer of the night over the scoreboard in right center to make the score 5-1 and Adam Lind hitting a sharp 2 run homer to left Center into the visitor’s bullpen.

For one Sunday night in September, all was well again in Nats Park. Not much can really be made of this series. Dusty definitely wanted this win tonight, leaving nothing to chance. He got just what he needed from Strasburg and the law firm of Kintlzer, Madson and Doolittle. Zimmerman and Murphy went a combined 6 for 8 tonight reviving the slumping lineup.  There are still 13 games left in the season before meaningful baseball is played in Nats park again. Until then, expect Dusty to rest some of the regulars and to tinker with some lineups as he figures out his 25 man roster for the playoffs.