Category: Nationals

When you take a look at the stats below, you might be amazed at the differences, or lack thereof, of the dominance that each pitcher has displayed: (All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference)

Pitcher A: W-L: 12-5, ERA: 2.39, IP: 162.0, SO: 150, WAR: 6.3, ERA+: 185

Pitcher B: W-L: 12-5, ERA: 2.25, IP: 160.1, SO: 220, WAR: 6.1, ERA+: 197

Based on the high strikeout total you probably figured out the Pitcher B is Max Scherzer, having another incredible season that has him ahead of the pack for his second consecutive CY Young Award (barring an extended DL stint due to neck issues that have continued to bother him). To the shock of all around baseball, Pitcher A is none other than Gio Gonzalez, having one of the quietest great seasons in recent history. How can a pitcher with a 4.57 ERA a year ago with declining Fastball velocity be so dominant just one season later? It seems unfathomable to comprehend, but that is where things stand with Gio this year.

Everyone knew the Nationals had a great rotation going into the season. It is one of the many reasons they were picked to win the NL East and challenge the Cubs and Dodgers in the playoffs. When analysts and smart baseball guys talked about the rotation, most mentioned the obvious names such as Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Some expected the continued excellence of Tanner Roark and that Joe Ross might make the leap this year in his third season. There was even high praise for hotshot prospect Erick Fedde after a strong spring and after the Nationals traded away Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez over the winter. The least talked about holdover from last season’s rotation was Gio, a pitcher seemingly in decline and who has been unable to throw enough strikes throughout his career. Now, with Joe Ross out for the year after having Tommy John Surgery, Scherzer currently on the DL, Strasburg just having returned from the DL, and Roark struggling this season, Gonzalez has been the steadying force in the rotation throughout the entire year.

ERA+ is a stat that measures how much above or below average a pitcher is over the course of a season. Factors such as the average ERA around baseball as well as the nature of the ballpark (hitter or pitcher-friendly ballpark) are taken into account with a baseline of 100. According to B-R, Gio Gonzalez has been 85 percent better than the average pitcher around baseball this year. This is a shocking turnaround given that Gio was 9 percent below average last season. The ERA+ last season demonstrated a continued trend over the last few seasons as it had gone from 138 in his awesome 2012 season (his first with the Nats) to the measly 91 he put up last year. All the advanced and non-advanced pitching stats point to a pitcher coming into his own after a few down seasons. His innings per start are up over 6 IP/start after checking in at 5.1/IP start last season. While he’s still walking a few too many guys, he’s managed to give up only 6.6 H/9 after giving up more than a hit per inning the last two seasons. All of this begs the question of how has he done it?

Watching Gio Gonzalez in recent years was akin to a slow climb up a sloped mountain. There was a lot of talking to himself, lots of pacing aimlessly, and a very slow, methodical approach. This year, Gio has continued to talk to himself, but the rest of the experience has sped up exponentially. He’s pitching with confidence and a renewed sense of self-belief even with declining velocity. The most basic way to look at this is how he’s fared when facing batters with Runners in Scoring Position (RISP). Last season the league batted .333/.406/.507 in those situations as he essentially turned every hitter he faced in that situation into Jose Altuve. The season before, those numbers were .272/.333/.424. Thanks to an improved pace and a belief in his stuff, the numbers this year are .121/.220/.168, numbers that reflect a below-average hitting pitcher.

While it would be too simplistic to say that Gio is better because he’s pitching faster, watching him this year reveals a much more relaxed and calm individual on the mound. He’s learned to take a deep breath when things don’t go his way and focus only on the next batter and the next pitch and not what just happened behind him. Even when he’s fallen behind hitters, he has had the confidence to come right after them and make his pitch and get the outs. There is no stat to back this up, but it seems like he’s given up 0 hits to batters that he’s fallen in the count 3-0 to. The same self-confidence is evident in Stras this year and it might be time to give Mike Maddux the due he deserves for the work he’s done with the staff this year. He’s gotten everyone to buy in and believe in their stuff; it is one of the reasons that the starters are pitching with more confidence and going deeper into games.

With Scherzer due back shortly and Strasburg pitching strongly in his first game back from his DL stint, the Nationals rotation is set up very nicely at the top. Given that Strasburg missed the 2012 and 2016 postseasons and Scherzer was not around in 2014, the continued excellence of Gio this year gives the Nats hope for their best playoff rotation yet. With tough lefties such as Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber Cody Bellinger, Curtis Granderson, and others looming in the playoffs, Gio will play a key role in just how far the Nationals advance this year. That is no longer scary thought for the Nationals and their fanbase.

Earlier this week the Nationals lineup against the Angels featured a starting outfield of Howie Kendrick, Adam Lind, and Michael A. Taylor with Wilmer Difo starting at shortstop. This was not due to a 1 p.m. start or the marathon games over the weekend against the Giants. Rather, due to the state of the Nationals disabled list (a loooong list) the team has had to make due with players that are playing out of position or ones that weren’t even on the roster to begin the year. Given the state of the lineup and the shuffling of the defense, the Nationals can be excused for potentially going through a slump or a cold streak. Instead, the backups and bench guys have helped the Nationals go to a season-high 25 games over .500 and a 14+ game lead in the division.

The long litany of injuries began when Adam Eaton tore his knee at the end of April. That forced Taylor (who was a bad spring away from possibly being released) into the starting lineup where he’s thrived. While he’s still striking out a little too much and missed time himself with an injury, Taylor has earned the trust of Dusty Baker by playing great defense and making consistent contact more than ever before. When Jayson Werth went down at the beginning of June, Brian Goodwin was called up and has been an extra-base hit machine since his call-up, generating 35 extra-base hits in his 74 games. Of course, he now is on the DL with a strained groin that is sure to sideline him for at least a couple of weeks.

On and on the injuries began to pile up, but the Nationals have continued to roll due to the strong performances of the players filling in. After Trea Turner went down, Difo came in and has been a sparkplug atop the lineup after briefly getting benched due to a slow start. Adam Lind has been pinch-hitter and spot-starter extraordinaire filling in for Ryan Zimmerman and in left-field when needed. Even when Bryce Harper went down with a horrific-looking (thankfully not season-ending) knee injury, Kendrick has stepped up and hit 3 home runs in the last 2 games, including a walk-off grand slam to end the weekend marathon Sunday night. Losing Joe Ross and Stephen Strasburg has barely slowed the team down given the strong performances of Edwin Jackson and AJ Cole spot-starting when needed.

With a huge lead in the division that won’t be relinquished, the focus down the stretch will be on getting all the key cogs healthy and ready to roll in time for the postseason. Strasburg is due back on Saturday after a strong rehab start in Potomac earlier this week. Having missed 2 of the 3 division series the Nationals have participated in, the onus will be on Stras to remain healthy and continue dealing down the stretch. Trea Turner and Jayson Werth should soon follow at the end of the month, although Werth’s timetable has continued to shift further and further back. The consensus with Harper’s injury seems to be that he will come back with a week or two left in the season, but he said that he will not return until he’s 100% healthy.

The silver lining in all these injuries? Barring any further injuries, the Nationals will have their strongest bench crew to date heading into the postseason. With professional hitters such as Kendrick and Lind raking and young guys such as Taylor, Goodwin, and Difo getting consistent at-bats, the team will have reliable options in key pinch-hitting opportunities in the postseason. While not planned or expected, the exposure that the backups and rookies have received might give them the confidence in a key spot in October. Combine the strong bench with the best offense in the National League and a bullpen that has been lights-out since the trade deadline, the Nationals could finally have the right ingredients for a deep run in October. If all clicks and the injuries don’t resurface, D.C. could finally host its first League Championship Series game in history.