Defeating the Curse

“I will not be discussing anything relative to 2019 at all…If you guys do ask anything about that, I’ll be walking right out the door.’’ In a Scott Boras written quote delivered with a classic Bryce flavor, the sweepstakes for arguably the most prized free agent of all time began. A former MVP and five–time all-star rarely hits the open market at a ripe age like 26. Actually, it’s never happened. It’s easy to make an argument for Bryce commanding a record $400-$500mil contract but that would require ignoring what occurred this past offseason.

Opening day last Thursday marked the end of one of the most curious offseason’s of baseball. An offseason that saw many of the top tier free agents remaining unsigned well into spring training. Ultimately the free agents that did sign eventually settled for less dollars and shorter contracts (many accepted one-year deals for less money than the qualifying offers they rejected just a few months earlier). This has led to a private panic in clubhouses around the league, especially among impending free agents. The question becomes should the biggest free agent of 2019 also be worried about what occurred this past offseason?

To fully answer that question, we have to explore the driving factors behind this slow offseason. Scott Boras wants you to believe that too many teams are tanking and are therefore choosing not to be competitive by passing on signing free agents. That explanation, however, fails to address a number of important factors. Despite Boras’s claim, when you look closely at this offseason, teams in the “tank” category such as the Padres or Phillies actually did spend big dollars on free agents while the usual big spenders like the Dodgers stayed pat. Two of the best explanations revolve around the luxury tax handicapping the richest teams as well as the rising value of young prospects around baseball. The former predictably results in less spending even by the wealthiest teams but the later requires more explanation. When a team signs a free agent, that team gives up both draft picks as well as international signing bonus money. That might not sound like a lot or even mean much to the average fan, but executives have estimated the exact cost of that to be an additional $50mil on top of the money guaranteed in the contract. All in all, luxury tax implications and sacrificing cheap young talent have stalled the free agent market in a big way.

Shifting back to Bryce, many wonder if the upcoming free agent king is immune to these larger forces redefining how MLB teams spend money. These recent changes in baseball play right into the hands of the Nationals front office. One important exemption to the rule of giving up picks and prospects to sign free agents is for the current teams of those free agents. That means that even without Bryce giving the Nats a home team discount, a discount of about $50mil is already built into the new contract. The other advantage that the Nationals have lies in their ability to exclusively discuss a new contract with Scott Boras all season long. Boras would never agree to a contract extension for Bryce before the season ends, but this at least allows the Nats to lay down a possible framework for a deal that can be finalized in the offseason. It also doesn’t hurt that Bryce’s agent and the owners of the Nats– the Lerner Family are very familiar with each other in terms of free agent negotiations. All things considered, the Nats have a lot going for them in their chances to re–sign Bryce and this past offseason only made it easier.

The Washington Nationals will win the NL East. It likely will not be close. The only semblance of competition may come once again from the New York Mets. It seems comical to say “once again” when the Mets barely competed last year. So, what is different this year? Well for starters (pun intended), they are going into the season healthy. They also made a change at the top, bringing in first time Manager, Mickey Callaway who coached the Cleveland Indians pitching staff to great success over the past couple of years. The Mets are hoping that Callaway can bring this experience to coach their potentially formidable and finally healthy starting rotation.

The Mets are only three seasons removed from a World Series appearance, where they got a glimpse of how good they can be for many years to come. This staff beat a much more stocked Dodgers team and mowed down the Cubs lineup, sweeping them in the NLCS, before losing to the Royals. The Mets followed up that season by making the playoffs again in 2016, the first time in their history they made the playoffs in back to back seasons.

This offseason, in addition to getting healthy, the Mets were smart and thrifty. They signed OF Jay Bruce, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, LHP Jason Vargaz, 3B Todd Frazier and reliever Anthony Swarzak to team friendly contracts. You may not like the sound of a thrifty big market team ( I hate it) but you can’t deny that in this market the Mets came out looking good.

For the Mets this season, it will come down to their starters and their health. Just for fun, and maybe some tears, here is a reminder of all the Mets who went down with an injury last year; Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Zach Wheeler (who didn’t even pitch at all last season), David Wright, (check the numbers, he was on pace for a Hall of Fame career) Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Jeurys Familia and others. Not to mention, they unloaded Jay Bruce (who has since resigned), Addison Reed and Neil Walker. All teams have injuries but the Mets were decimated and this year, everyone, sans Wright, is healthy. The Mets need 60 starts from the top two in the rotation (Syndergaard and Degrom) and they need Harvey and Matz to return closer to their top form. The Mets also have rotation depth for once with Jason Vargas, Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman and Wheeler likely to pitch in that fifth rotation spot. This depth will keep their arms healthy. This is a top 5 in baseball rotation if healthy, if not, the Mets will be terrible.

Another, team strength to go unnoticed is the Mets bullpen. Familia, the team’s single season saves leader (51) returns to do the bulk of the closing. Callaway has already confirmed that he will use the game scenarios and matchups to determine how he is going to use the backend of his bullpen, as he did in Cleveland. With so many strong backend arms, this can prove to benefit the Mets as this may help keep Familia out of those multiple out or multiple run saves he often blew. Gsellmen, or Lugo, or Wheeler or Vargaz will play pivotal roles as the long man out of the pen or spot reliever giving the rotation a breather and longevity.

Can you guess which teams in the National League hit the most home runs? Not the Cubs or the Nats. Answer, the Mets and Brewers. However, other than hit home runs the Mets did very little else right offensively. Again, injuries and trades killed this lineup, but don’t be mistaken, this team will hit again. This lineup is more balanced this year and the bench is solid. They have upgraded at just about every position. This lineup likely has four 30+ home run hitters (Bruce, Cespedes, Frazier, Conforto). What the Mets lose in speed, they make up for in power. There won’t be much small ball with this team, but you can expect they will produce a lot of runs this year.

The Mets will not win the National League East. However, the Mets will compete. This team can win 90 games or 70 games if it all falls apart again. My prediction, it won’t. The Mets will take one of the wild card spots. In the playoffs, this is not a team you want to face. With 2 aces a lineup that can hit and a long bullpen that is six men strong, other NL playoff teams will want to avoid the Mets. Then again, these are the Mets, and you never know how they will disappoint you again this year. (Careful Nats fans, you should refrain from laughter as your team has shown some great creativity in losing playoff series.)

It’s Opening Day, Let’s Play Ball!